My One Political Post for 2024

I'm trying not to be political. I know that there's very little that I can say that will sway anyone one way or the other. But I wanted to say this:

Eighteen long years ago, I wrote The Counterfeit, book about the Illuminati and about conspiracy theories. And there was one big takeaway from that:

People believe in conspiracies because it is easier to believe a simple answer than a complex answer. It is easier to believe that there is a cabal of people in a smoke-filled room making the important decisions.

Take, for instance, inflation. I don't care whose side you're on but here's the deal:

Things That Control Inflation:

The Myth:

• A President and their administration

The Truth:

• Increased Consumer Spending

• Government Spending

• Export Demand

• Low Unemployment

• Rising Production Costs

• Supply Chain Disruptions

• Import Prices

• Energy Costs

• Money Supply Growth

• Interest Rates

• Currency Depreciation

• Inflation Expectations

• Wage-Price Spiral

• Market Power and Monopolies

• Global Commodity Prices

• Geopolitical Events

• Tax Changes

• Deficit Spending

• Global Recessions or Booms

• Trade Imbalances

My Point:

It is very, terribly easy for us to say "well the problem is the president's tax plan" or "the problem is government spending", but the answer is that it's ALL OF THE THINGS.

Of course, you have to choose between one candidate or the other, so if your main deciding factor in this election is inflation--though I cannot believe how it possibly could be with all the other stuff going on--then you need to pick a president that matches up with the things on that list as best you can, but ALSO recognize that there's a lot of stuff on that list that no president can control.

My Bigger Point:

This conspiracy thinking applies to a whole lot more than inflation. Inflation is just an easy example. My point in all of this is can be summed up by the inestimable travel host Rick Steves, in his documentary about Fascism (which I suggest you all watch right here for free): "Beware of any leader who presents easy solutions to complex problems."

And that's it. That's all the political posts you're going to get from me this year.